The UAE is set to add around 390,000 new homes by 2030, marking one of the largest residential expansion cycles in recent years, according to a new industry report. The first-ever Alpen GCC Real Estate 2026 report by Alpen Capital shows the country’s residential stock rising from approximately 1.08 million units to about 1.47 million units by the end of the decade.

Dubai is expected to account for the majority of this pipeline, with apartment-led mixed-use communities continuing to dominate new launches, while Abu Dhabi focuses more on premium villas and waterfront neighbourhoods.

Across the GCC, residential supply is expected to increase from approximately 6.26 million units in 2025 to 7.28 million units by 2030, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE accounting for the bulk of the supply.

Saudi Arabia’s residential supply is estimated to grow by 499,000 units between 2025 and 2030, reaching 3.45 million by 2030. Giga projects in Riyadh and Jeddah are expected to fuel this growth.

Sustained growth

According to the report, the GCC’s real estate landscape has undergone a transformation, driven by national agendas to diversify and build a resilient economy. “Dubai has led this transformation, establishing itself as a global metropolis fuelled by foreign ownership, massive infrastructure investments and ambitious strategies,” said Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director, Alpen Capital.

“Over the next few years, the region’s real estate industry is expected to witness a steady supply across the residential, commercial, hospitality and retail segments, largely supported by continued government spending and investments in building a world-class infrastructure,” she added.

But what does this mean for rents?

A supply increase of this scale typically shifts the balance between landlords and tenants. The report stated that supply growth in the GCC is becoming more “structured” and increasingly aligned with demand rather than speculative expansion. That could reduce the risk of sharp, sudden corrections.

However, with nearly 390,000 additional homes entering the UAE market over five years, rental growth is likely to moderate if deliveries outpace new household formation.

The study highlights that population growth, expatriate inflows and urbanisation remain strong demand drivers.

The UAE’s population, according to Worldometer, has surpassed 11 million in 2025. There isa continued inflow of expatriates and high-net-worth individuals supporting both mid-tier and luxury segments

If those inflows remain steady, the additional supply may ease pressure without triggering a widespread rent correction. But in sub-markets where deliveries cluster heavily, tenants could gain greater negotiating power. Will property prices grow or drop

The report from Alpen stated that supply across the GCC is entering a more disciplined phase, with greater emphasis on mixed-use developments, asset quality and long-term livability.

“Over the coming years, we expect supply–demand dynamics across the GCC to become more balanced. Large-scale developments are being phased more strategically, with a clear emphasis on quality, mixed-use formats, and demand-led execution. We are witnessing that development trends are shifting towards master-planned, sustainable, and technology-enabled communities focused on long-term liveability,” said Sharmin Karanjia, Executive Director, Alpen Capital.

“While certain sub-markets may experience short-term oversupply pressures, well-located and high-quality projects are likely to continue seeing strong absorption and pricing support,” she said.

“Going forward, as major development zones reach operational maturity, investors will have a broad base of high-quality assets maintaining interest from both regional and international buyers”, said Sharmin.

What’s next?

High disposable incomes, steady population growth, expatriate inflows, and a favourable tax environment will remain key demand drivers across the region.

The report stated that future development pipelines will feature mixed-use projects, enhanced asset quality, sustainability, and the integration of residential, commercial and lifestyle components.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to account for the majority of the upcoming supply, while other GCC markets pursue more targeted and selective growth strategies.

In the commercial segment, office supply across the GCC is estimated to expand from 33.3 million sqm in 2025 to 42.4 million sqm by 2030, with over 65 per cent of new supply delivered in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as per the existing pipeline.

GN